By Codeman177 – http:/twitter.com/codeman177

Since Niteowl has started posting on his own blog, I have asked if I could begin publishing the Green Brief so that everyone on wwp would once again have a summary of the day’s news from Iran. I, like Niteowl, have gotten all of my information from reliable tweets and am not reporting any information that I could not confirm.

January 17th, 2010

Protests/General news

1. Two weeks left until 11 days of celebration begin to mark the anniversary of the 1979 revolution. Since the protests of Ashura, the public scene has died down significantly, however. Preparations for more protests continue.

2. The regime has threatened to try demonstrators for the crime of Mohareb (war against god), more than 60 journalists and human rights activists have signed an open letter denouncing this.

3. As the regime tries to break protests with more arrests, there are claims that Eshrat Abad Prison could become a…

Iran Analysis: How “Mohareb” Death Sentences May Hurt Regime | Enduring America

MY OWN ANALYSIS:

EXPECT SLOGANS LIKE THIS IN THE NEXT DEMONSTRATION

1. "We are all Mohareb!" (true)

2. "Khamenei isn’t Allah and Ahmadinejad isn’t his Prophet." ( so bitingly apt)

3. "Why not execute all of us?"

(A logical question for which there is an obvious answer. Moral qualms don’t restrain Khamenei since he had repeatedly demonstrated he has none. If the regime could trust rank and file members of the security forces to go along, Khamenei would agree to slaughter millions. You can bet that many retired or cashiered former IRCG officers are in contact with former colleagues)

EVIDENCE SUGGESTS KHAMENEI IS THE WORLD’S SLOWEST LEARNER

A. Intimdation is failing to intimidate,

B. The harsher Khamenei gets, the more people he drives into the opposition. That includes many conservativers in the regime’s ranks.

A DOWNFALL SCENARIO BEGINS WITH…